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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. However, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the greatest upset.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime also-rans improving in unison. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still