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Beijing has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as China escalates strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, active near the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.